Global temperatures are rising. The rate of temperature increase has got faster in the last few years, and the temperature is rapidly approaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial times, the limit internationally agreed in Paris 2015, to avert the worst impacts of global warming. As part of the Paris Agreement to combat climate change, over 140 countries have announced, or are considering, net zero emissions (NZE) targets for 2050-2070. Achieving NZE by 2050 will require deep decarbonisation of all sectors across the economy.
Power generation is the largest contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, accounting for nearly 40% of all energy-related emissions in 2022. As a major source of electricity, coal’s share in global electricity generation has been declining but was still 35.6% in 2023. To achieve global climate goals, a fundamental transformation in coal power generation is essential and urgent. This requires a wide range of technologies and different approaches depending upon the circumstances of each country and region.
Governments in many developed nations, particularly those in European countries have established policies and regulations to promote the development of renewable power and to phase-out or phase-down coal use. The UK, the birthplace of coal power, became the first of the G7 countries to end the use of coal power when it closed its last coal plant, Ratcliffe-on-Soar Power Station on 7 October 2024.
However, more than 75% of coal power generation capacity is installed in emerging and developing economies that make up 85% of the global population. Many developing countries rely on coal to provide secure, affordable and reliable energy to drive economic growth and lift people out of poverty. In regions without access to good renewable resources or low-cost natural gas, ending local coal production and consumption may not be economically or politically feasible. In some regions, especially those Southeast Asian and African countries where new coal power plants are being built every year, coal power generation remains a central or even growing part of electricity systems. Consequently, coal will remain a dominant source for electricity production in these regions over the next few decades. On the other hand, natural gas-fired power generation will be required in and after 2050 as a back-up to deal with the vagaries of the weather in a renewable-dominated grid in some parts of the world. In addition, there are some hard-to-abate industrial processes such as cement and steel making that need to find effective ways to mitigate emissions. The Energy Transition Outlook 2024 by Wood Mackenzie (see figure below) shows that even under Net Zero Transition Scenario, fossil fuel use will continue by 2050 and beyond.
As the world will not end fossil fuel use any time soon, it is critical to decarbonise the operations of power generation and various industrial processes. There are several pathways to reduce carbon emissions from these sectors such as increasing energy efficiency, displacing fossil fuels with biomass or low-emission ammonia or hydrogen fuels, and adopting carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS). CCUS has the potential to significantly reduce carbon emissions and could provide a cost-effective pathway for deep decarbonisation of the fossil power sector and heavy industries. Studies by the IEA, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other independent organisations all indicate that,
for all scenarios assessed, CCUS is essential no matter what else is done to keep global warming close to 1.5°C.
The value of CCUS is increasingly recognised globally and rapid progress in this sector is occurring driven by strong and sustained policy support in leading nations. This was reflected in the 17th Greenhouse Gas Control Technology Conference that was held in Calgary, Canada, on 20-25 October. With over 1500 delegates from 47 countries, the GHGT series is the premier international conference on GHG reduction technologies that brings the CCUS world together. Over the years, the narrative of the GHGT Conference has shifted from an earlier focus on CCS in the power sector to later including direct air capture (DAC) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Now, there is a growing body of work on applications of CCUS in industrial processes such as steel and cement making, hydrogen production, waste-to-energy, and carbon utilisation as well as developments in the full CCUS value chain such as CO2 transport and storage. There were over 850 presentations from industrial players, technology developers/providers, business partners, government officials, and researchers from around the world on development in all aspects of CCUS. It was encouraging to see increasing participation and support from industry, numerous start-up companies and a highly enthusiastic new generation of students who have been inspired to join the field.
Achieving NZE by the middle of this century is extremely challenging and all available measures and technologies will be needed and all options kept open. For clarification, ‘net zero emissions’ refers to a state in which the GHGs emitted into the atmosphere are balanced by the removal of GHGs from the atmosphere rather than zero emissions of GHGs in absolute terms. Thus, the ‘net’ in net zero is important because it will be almost impossible to reduce emissions from all sources to zero on the timescale needed.
According to the IEA, total energy-related CO2 emissions in 2023 reached a new record high of 37.4 billion tonnes. Analyses of pathways to NZE under various scenarios indicate that emissions reductions alone are not sufficient, and carbon removal needs to be scaled up.
Carbon capture is the only technology capable of reducing large-scale emissions from numerous industrial sources and removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
Carbon capture systems can also be retrofitted to the vast fleet of existing fossil-fuelled power plants and many industrial complexes to decarbonise their operations.
Currently, there are around 50 commercial carbon capture facilities operating around the world capturing under 50 MtCO2/y. In the past few years, there has been an exponential growth in carbon capture projects with 44 under construction, and over 500 more in development. However, this is way off what is required to keep NZE on track. According to Wood Mackenzie achieving NZE requires nearly 5 BtCO2/y to be captured and removed by CCUS in 2050. This makes the tasks ahead enormous, requiring huge investment and collaboration among investors, industrial players, policy makers and researchers. On the other hand, NZE obligations provide economic opportunities.
A major ramp-up of CCUS implementation is required in the next decade to put the global energy system and industries on track to meet NZE goals. Urgent action is needed to promote large scale deployment of CCUS.
Governments have a critical role to play through policies to establish a sustainable and viable market for CCUS, but industry must also embrace the opportunity. Working together, it may be possible to achieve NET zero emissions as targeted.
